THE outlook for the USA’s tourism industry is bleak, with outbound travel suffering more than inbound throughout 2009, according to a report from IPK International, which will release more details on America’s inbound and outbound travel performance during the ITB Future Day on March 11.
According to the upcoming ITB World Travel Trends Report 2009 tourist arrivals growth into the USA was running at 8 per cent until August 2008. September was flat. While final figures are still being collated, the report says declining arrivals in the fourth quarter of this year will drag America’s overall performance for 2008 down from 8 per cent to 6 per cent.
“A figure of 6 per cent is well above the world average,” said Dr Martin Buck, director of the Competence Center Travel & Logistics at Messe Berlin, which commissions the ITB World Travel Trends Report. “However, the abrupt change is worrying as it tells the US travel industry what to expect in early 2009. Weak demand from foreign markets seems likely to continue, especially if the dollar stays strong.”
According to official US data, before the abrupt Q4 2008 global economic downturn, European arrivals into America had been surging ahead at an average of 17 per cent, led by Spain (+36 per cent), Italy (+29 per cent), France (+28 per cent), the Netherlands (+26 per cent) and Germany (+20 per cent).
Travel from Asia to the USA, however, stagnated in 2008, attributable in large part to a six per cent decline in travellers from Japan, the USA’s largest market in Asia.
The contraction in American outbound travel has been even more severe. Despite a strong start to 2008, growth in US outbound travel slowed fairly dramatically in March, and turned negative in June, the beginning of the outbound slump. By September, the monthly decline was over seven per cent.
As Americans reduce their travel, Europeans are being hit the hardest, according to Buck.
“Europe and other destinations dependent on travelling Americans need to go on alert and adjust their strategies,” he said. “What we’re seeing in the ITB World Travel Trends Report is a continued decline in American consumer and business confidence combined with higher unemployment and lower disposable incomes – despite the otherwise positive Obama effect.”
Buck added, “Americans seem likely to trade down in terms of destination choice and type of trip. Business travel, especially travel for meetings and conventions, is the new weakest link.”
He said that for leisure travel, the new preference among Americans is to take shorter trips closer to home.