MEXICO'S tourism economy is expected to increase by about five per cent per year over the next 10 years despite the outbreak of swine flu, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC).
The first country in the world to experience an outbreak of the now widespread H1N1 influenza virus, Mexico has seen visitor numbers fall over the last three months with the Mexican government predicting the loss of at least $200 to $300 million. However, the final toll could well be much greater.
WTTC president and chief executive Jean-Claude Baumgarten said: “Given recent negative developments, it’s hardly surprising the situation is forecast to be tough for the remainder of this year.” He was speaking on the results of the research conducted by Oxford Economics on behalf of WTTC recently.
“Indeed, we expect Mexico’s travel and tourism economy GDP to contract by nine per cent this year - more than the 6.5 per cent decline forecast for Mexican GDP as a whole.
“Even allowing for the positive start to this year, arrivals are now expected to decline by a third in 2009, with a similar decline in spending, thereby reducing direct employment by 160,000 jobs to fewer than 1.6 million.”
Smaller, but nonetheless significant, drops are expected in residents’ tourism spending and in investment in tourism facilities, according to the research.
“However, the government is responding really pro-actively to such developments,” Baumgarten said, “planning to invest US$90 million in the industry over the coming months, with an extensive marketing campaign being launched in key source markets. In addition, a number of other measures have been introduced to stimulate demand, such as complementary insurance for hotel bookings by foreigners.”
As a result of all these efforts, WTTC/Oxford Economics believe that a sharp rebound in activity is likely over the next two years, with travel and tourism economy GDP projected to expand by over six per cent in 2010 and 2011.
“More importantly, we are also optimistic for the longer term,” Baumgarten said. “We still expect the growth in Mexican travel and tourism economy GDP over the next 10 years to average close to five per cent per annum, which would mean that direct employment in Mexico’s travel and tourism should be in the region of 2 million by 2019.”