PRESENTING its latest report at World Travel Market (WTM) the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) revised its forecasts with global growth and world trade set to beat expectations in 2010.
Outgoing CEO and president Jean-Claude Baumgarten said the economic recovery has been reflected in a faster-than-expected rebound in international travel, particularly in Asian markets.
The global travel and tourism economy real GDP growth is now expected to rise by two per cent this year (up from 0.5 per cent forecast early in the year), creating an extra 946,000 jobs worldwide, and the industry’s market share of total GDP and investment will increase by one percentage point this year, compared to WTTC’s initial forecast in January.
However, expenditure on travel and tourism is still well down on its 2008 peak and the pace of recovery in 2011 is likely to be slower than previously forecast. Western consumers continue to pay down debt and many developed economies move to tighten fiscal policy.
“The longer-term prospects for travel and tourism remain positive, boosted by rising prosperity in Asia. WTTC remains confident travel and tourism will remain a dynamic force for wealth and job creation,” said Baumgarten.
“Over the next ten years, WTTC forecasts that the global travel and tourism economy will grow by 4.3 per cent per year, implying its share of the global economy will rise to just over 10 per cent. This will help create an additional 66 million jobs by 2020 - 50 million of which in Asia - acting as a key driver of poverty reduction.”
Looking at growth in some world regions Asia is still set to see growth of 4.2 per cent, however, this is slightly down from the initial forecast. Glancing over some key countries in Asia, China will remain the main engine of global growth over the next decade. India will enjoy a robust recovery following mild slowdown in 2009 whereas Japan’s real GDP growth will increase gradually, reaching a cyclical peak in 2013.
Performing less well is Europe. This region will only manage a 1.4 per cent growth this year (down 0.2 per cent). Looking at some key countries in this region, the UK’s travel and tourism economy GDP will contract further this year, before growth starts to accelerate from 2011, with the 2012 Olympics set to boost activity. France and Spain will suffer further contraction in 2010 with no real growth until 2012 and Germany’s strong visitor arrival growth will unfortunately be offset by the weak outlook for investment.
In the US, despite sharp growth in foreign visitor arrivals so far, recovery in 2010 has been dragged back by very weak investment and business travel, but long-term growth prospects for domestic (2.1 billion trips in 2010, of which 50 per cent overnight) and inbound arrivals are optimistic.
WTTC holds its 2011 Global Travel & Tourism Summit in Las Vegas from May 17 to 19, 2011.