THAILAND'S tourism sector continues to function despite political turbulence, a brace of cancelled travel plans and worries from investors and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) officials alike.
Heads of state across ASEAN called for peaceful, political solutions to the standoff, which had sputtered along for weeks before erupting on Saturday April 10, leaving 21 dead.
"The deteriorating situation in Thailand between demonstrators and government security forces in Bangkok has caused a serious concern among ASEAN member-states and the world at large," ASEAN Secretary General Dr Surin Pitsuwan said.
"Our concerns are two-fold," said Mark Siegel, CEO of Golfasian, a Bangkok-based golf tour operator. "While 99 per cent of the country's hotels and golf courses and restaurants are operating as normal, the more important concern is that we continue to have dozens of clients in country. We have to look out for their welfare and assure them that their safety isn't an issue because, in my view, it isn't.
"There can be no minimizing the fact that 21 people are dead. But the reality is, I was all over Bangkok that day [10 April], out to the airport and downtown, and if you weren't surfing the net or watching television, you would not have known anything was amiss. The demonstrations and ultimately the violence has been restricted to very small, very specific areas of an enormous city. And the rest of the country is unaffected."
Siegel said the second concern is the long-term toll these events, still ongoing, will take on Thai tourism — one of the country's largest industries. No one can say, of course, but Thai Airways International shares slumped 14 per cent on Monday after countries including Russia, South Korea and China advised citizens to postpone trips to Bangkok following the weekend violence. Airports of Thailand dropped 4.1 per cent; Minor International, the country's biggest hotel and restaurant operator, plunged 8.7 per cent.
"It's hard to strike the right balance in assessing the effects going forward," said Siegel, American-born but a Thai resident since 1995. "It's disrespectful and simply untrue to assert that things are going forward as normal, and will go forward as normal. This is the worst political violence in 20 years.
"But it's also true that this is a country where the military has staged 18 separate coups since the 1930s, a country where politics are raucous and protests are commonplace. I mean, the past week's event have shaken the Thai people. No question. But from a tourist perspective, things will recover quickly. They always have."
Thailand's Fiscal Policy Office warned that Thai tourism arrivals might slump 20 per cent this year. Some analysts are now predicting that up to $500 million could be lost from the Thai economy, as subdued Songkran (Thai New Year) celebrations will hit retail and tourism businesses hard.
Comparisons to the most recent political strife in Thailand are imperfect but instructive, Siegel said. In December 2008, red-shirted protestors staged a peaceful-but-extremely-disruptive protest at Suvarnabhumi, closing the international airport for three days.
"There was no real violence there, at all, but that incident spooked a lot of travellers and prompted a lot of tourists to change their plans," Siegel said. "No one would have predicted it, but 2009 turned out to be our biggest year ever in terms of golfer visitorship. Things rebounded much stronger than anticipated."
Some foreign governments have issued advisories to travellers, but none have formally advised against travel to Thailand. The same Saturday that 21 were killed in Bangkok, Golfasian welcomed a party of 16 golfing Australians at Suvarnabhumi. Siegel said he escorted them to the Westin Sukhumvit in the heart of downtown - all without incident.
Siegel said he has ‘dozens more' golfers in country right now. Widespread SMS and cell phone usage amongst tourists makes communication fairly straightforward and he added Golfasian is determined to keep current and scheduled visitors fully apprised of what's happening - and not happening - in Bangkok.