THE International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced that January 2010 demand for international scheduled air traffic showed continuing improvement. Compared to the previous year, January passenger demand was up 6.4 per cent.
Against this improving demand, a 1.2 per cent increase in passenger capacity in January pushed load factors to 75.9 per cent (up from the 72.2 per cent recorded for January 2009).
International cargo demand showed a 28.3 per cent improvement with only a 3.7 per cent increase in capacity. This pushed the cargo load factor to 49.6 per cent which is a significant change from the 40.1 per cent recorded in January 2009.
The large increases in year-on-year comparisons reflect a steady improvement from the precipitous fall in demand that characterised the early part of 2009 rather than a dramatic improvement in January. Compared to December 2009, and adjusting for seasonal variations, passenger demand grew by 0.5 per cent while air freight volumes increased by three per cent.
'Airlines have lost two to three years of growth. Demand is moving in the right direction. The three per cent increase in freight volumes from December to January is particularly encouraging. We can start to see the future with some cautious optimism, but better volumes do not necessarily mean better profits. Passenger yields are still 15 per cent below peak. And we expect 2010 losses to be $5.6 billion,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s director general and CEO.
There are large geographical differences in the improvements. The strongest upturns have been seen in markets where economic recovery from the recession has been strongest - Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.
International Passenger Demand
Compared to the low point in the cycle (February 2009) international passenger traffic is up 8.6 per cent. The market has not yet recovered from the losses of 2008 and early 2009. Demand must improve by a further two per cent to return to the peak levels of early 2008.
- Asia-Pacific carriers experienced a 6.5 per cent increase in demand compared to the previous year. Of the improvement in demand seen since the early 2009 low point, 31 per cent has been realised by carriers in the region which is leading the global economic recovery.
- Carriers in North America and Europe saw demand increase by 2.1 per cent and 3.1 per cent, respectively. Although both regions have gained six per cent from the early 2009 lows, they remain four to six per cent below the early 2008 peak levels. This reflects the jobless recovery from the recession in which consumers are focused on paying down debt.
- Middle Eastern carriers grew throughout the recession. Growth accelerated to 23.6 per cent in January.