IF 2011 was a tough year for the global travel and tourism industry, it is not expected to pick up much pace in 2012, says the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC).
Earlier this year, the WTTC forecast growth of 4.5 per cent and 5.1 per cent in 2011 and 2012 respectively. However following the global financial downturn in the second half of 2011 and the eurozone debt crisis, the forecast has been downgraded to 3.2 per cent and 3.3 per cent respectively. The numbers measure as a direct contribution to gross domestic product (GDP).
Long-term prospects remain strong, as the WTTC predicts 10-year growth holding steady at around four per cent per year between 2011 and 2021. This is down marginally from the annual growth of 4.3 per cent forecast in March 2011, with the reduction due almost entirely to the downward revisions to growth in 2011 and 2012.
“The travel and tourism industry is still growing strongly but at a lower rate that previously anticipated for both 2011 and 2012,” says WTTC president and CEO David Scowsill. A growth of 3.2 per cent during 2011 would still be laudable and would rank the industry ahead of world GDP growth, expected to be 2.8 per cent in most developed countries.”
“The two big themes of 2012 are likely to be the rebound in tourism in the Middle East following the social upheaval of 2011 and the recovery of Japan, the world’s third largest travel and tourism economy, following the earthquake and tsunami,” he adds.
WTTC’s latest report on Japan shows a strong recovery which states that the number of international tourist arrivals will recover by early 2012, along with a faster recovery in Japan’s own domestic demand.
“It is fitting that our 12th Global Summit will bring the world’s travel and tourism leaders to Tokyo and Sendai in April next year,” he says.
“We were planning to have the show in Japan even before the tsunami and earthquake hit. But after these disasters, the Japanese government was very clear that they wanted to go ahead with the summit , while we were committed to help the Japanese tourism industry recover. It was then decided that we would do a mini-summit together with Pata in Sendai, which was the epicentre of the earthquake, and the rest of the programme in Tokyo.
“The timing of the show is perfect because it is one year after the tsunami and the earthquake and Japan’s tourism industry sees this as an extremely significant event that will bring the world’s travel and tourism leaders to Japan.”
A key focus at the summit will be on global disaster recovery and this will see speakers from crisis-stricken countries including Thailand and Indonesia speak about their experiences. Another focus will be on the growth of the Asia-Pacific market and how the region is viewed by the world at large. “Day one of the summit will take place in Sendai. After which we will transfer the executive committee via Bullet train to Tokyo, where the main summit will take place,” says Scowsill, adding that the 2013 event will be held in Abu Dhabi. UAE.
Commenting on how a nation recovers from a disaster, Scowsill says: “If we track the recovery of most cites that have been affected by a natural disaster, it usually takes about eight to 15 months for travel and tourism to bounce back, depending on the severity of the crisis and how it is managed by the country. It’s about sharing the best practices of what other countries did in different situations, so that each country can learn from its peers.”
“A disaster is usually followed by a dramatic dip in tourist numbers and the faster the country gets out and communicates with the rest of the world, the faster the recovery. For instance Egypt has witnessed political upheaval rather than a natural disaster and there is a lot of reluctance from tourists to return to Cairo.
However, cities like Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada are completely safe, and so it is imperative that the government and the tourism industry continue to communicate and send this message out there.”
Speaking about the growth of tourism in the Asia-Pacific region, Scowsill says: “In China and India, the next 10 years will see a GDP growth of nine per cent per annum which is incredibly fast. From now until 2030, it is estimated that over two million middle class consumers will want to travel and 1.5 million of that will come from these two markets and this a huge growth to absorb for the domestic tourism markets.
“In a city like Beijing, which receives 100 million visitors annually at the moment, 95 million of those are domestic travellers. Their current airport is the second busiest airport in the world and they are already looking at building another airport to cope with the mammoth growth from 100 million to 200 million. It is this domestic growth that is driving the infrastructure demands of that city, including improving airport infrastructure and railway networks which in turn will support travel across the country.”
The Middle East too can generate similar growth in regional tourism, says Scowsill, but adds that this would hinge on the region doing away with the intra-regional visas, which act as “inhibitors,” in order to boost growth.
“As more people have the disposable income to travel, we also need regional low-cost carriers to stimulate the growth. They are a key growth generator for intra-regional travel,” Scowsill adds.